The mixed random processes of the first order autoregressive process (AR(1)) and white noise have been proved to provide a good approximation of baseline noise in a variety of analytical instruments, and may therefore be useful for estimating precision profiles. This study aims to examine a recently proposed autocorrelation method for estimating three noise parameters involved in the mixed processes (two for AR(1) and one for white noise) of HPLC, which can then be used to calculate the precision profile. This chemometric method was applied to repeatability evaluations of estriol determination using HPLC with UV detection (HPLC-UV). The relative standard deviations (RSDs) of peak area measurements for 5.0 mg/L estriol were observed to be 1.42% for the autocorrelation method and 1.63% for actual repeated measurements of real samples ( n = 6). The theoretical RSDs of the autocorrelation method fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the repeated measurements. It is found that the noise parameters are obtained from real chromatographic baseline via the autocorrelation method. Moreover, the instrumental detection limit of estriol based on ISO 11843 was obtained from the precision profile (plot of RSD of measurements against concentration). This is the first paper to describe the autocorrelation method is a practically useful technique for evaluating the precision profile of HPLC-UV analyses without recourse to the repeated measurements of real samples.