出版社：Thai Society of Higher Eduction Institutes on Environment
摘要：This study aimed to evaluate the effects of future floods triggered by climate change reinforced
extreme precipitation upon rice production with the case study of the highly rice cultivated
District of Duc Tho in the North Central Region of Vietnam. 24 hour - extreme precipitation and
its recurrence interval were identified by applying Probability Weighted Moment to Generalized
Extreme Value distribution using historical daily observations and output of ensemble median
of eight selected GCMs. The calculation was run under RCP2.6 with low climate sensitivity (best
case) and RCP8.5 with high climate sensitivity (worst case). The predicted future precipitation
data was then used for flood modeling and inundation calculation using hydrological models
and GIS. An integrated method taking into account flood depth, inundation duration and
crop calendar was then used for potential damage calculation. The results show that under the
impact of climate change, extreme precipitation and floods would be intensified, and as floods
become more intensified, deeper and longer, the loss they would cause to rice production would
increase significantly. The loss in 2050s under the worst case would be 30.1% and under the best
case would be 10.3% greater than that in the baseline period (1986-2005). The results of this
study provide valuable scientific information for policy maker in long-term agricultural and
infrastructural planning to minimize potential damages of future floods.
