出版社：Thai Society of Higher Eduction Institutes on Environment
摘要：Extreme weather events present serious threats to existing human life and resource systems. Eventssuch as flooding, extreme heat or cold, heavy or high winds have the ability to destroy, disrupt, anddisable vital links. In this article, some patterns of these indices were presented. Representativeconcentration pathway (RCP4.5) running by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4)during 2011-2041 was used to study the future trend of climate indices over Benghazi in Libya.Totally different extreme climate indices were analyzed like the number of heat and cold waves,summer days and tropical nights. It is clear that the numbers of summer days (SU25) and tropicalnights (TR20) have a positive sign, which implies that in each year there is a rise by one dayand night. In addition, there is a major decrease within the trend of cold days and nights. Forprecipitation extreme indices, there are negative trends within the annual range of days: with theprecipitation amount ≥ 1mm (-0.73), the annual range of days ≥ 10mm (-0.02), and the annualrange of days ≥ 20mm (-0.022). Whereas for the annual total of daily precipitation > 95th percentile(0.041) there is a positive trend, and therefore the trend of the precipitation indices is insignificantas temperature indices, which may be induced to the uncertainty within the physics and parameterizationof the precipitation within the regional model. Projection of future climate extremeindices is an important step for stakeholders to put adaptation plans to reduce the vulnerabilityrisks upon society.
关键词：Statistical downscaling; Extreme events; Libya; Canadian Regional Climate model
