期刊名称：Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies
出版年度：2019
卷号：21
期号：1
页码：1-2
出版社：Loyola University Chicago
摘要：This paper studies the evolution of three macroeconomic variables (namely current scal
expenditures, public debt, and consumer-price ination)
around the time of the onset of armed conicts
during 1950-2016. The authors compare the performance of these variables in conict-aicted
economies with economies that did not experience social conict.
The analyses cover episodes of
conict
from around the world and study the evolution of these variables during the ve
years prior to and ve
years after the onset of conicts.
Further, four alternative denitions
of social conict
are used to ascertain the robustness of the econometric results. The evidence suggests that current scal
expenditures and public debt (both as a share of gross domestic product) in conict-aicted
economies tend to be higher than in non-conict
economies prior to the onset of conict,
begin to rise further prior to the date of the onset of conict,
and stay relatively high after the onset of conict.
In contrast, there is little evidence that ination
is higher in conict-aicted
economies, prior to or after the onset of conict.
These dierential
trends between conict-aicted
and non-conict
economies shed new light on the existing literature on macroeconomic populism, and on key macroeconomic aspects of the economics of post-conict
reconstruction.
