期刊名称：Eurasia Journal of Mathematics, Science & Technology Education
印刷版ISSN：1305-8223
电子版ISSN：1305-8223
出版年度：2020
卷号：16
期号：2
页码：1-21
DOI：10.29333/ejmste/113111
出版社：Pamukkale Univ Dept Sci Education
摘要：This paper reports some experiments on probabilistic reasoning designed to
investigate the impact of the probabilistic problem presentation format (verbalnumerical
and graphical-pictorial) on subjects’ confidence in the correctness of their
performance, other than the calibration between confidence and accuracy. To
understand the potential effect of the format, these dimensions were assessed by
monitoring contextual and individual variables: time pressure, numerical and
visuospatial abilities, statistical anxiety and attitudes towards statistics. The participants
included 257 Psychology students without statistical knowledge, recruited from Italian
and Spanish universities, who fulfilled self-report validated measures. The students
expressed their retrospective judgments of confidence item-by-item in relation to each
probabilistic problem. This approach enabled the computation of two measures of
calibration (the Bias Index - the Confidence-Judgment Accuracy Quotient). The results
indicated that the problem presentation format did not exert a significant main effect
on confidence, with the exception of when the interaction between the format and one
subscale of the attitudes towards the statistics test was considered. The Bias Index,
however, was significantly related to the interaction between format and time pressure.
The study offers a point of reflection in relation to the potential effect exerted by the
problem format and time constraint in calibration.
关键词：probabilistic reasoning; problem format; reasoning confidence;
performance accuracy; metacognitive calibration; time pressure
