摘要：This paper reexamines the forecasting ability of Phillips
curves from both an unconditional and conditional perspective
by applying the method developed by Giacomini and
White (2006). We find that forecasts from our Phillips-curve
models tend to be unconditionally inferior to those from our
univariate forecasting models. Significantly, we also find conditional
inferiority, with some exceptions. When we do find
improvement, it is asymmetric—Phillips-curve forecasts tend
to be more accurate when the economy is weak and less accurate
when the economy is strong. Any improvement we find,
however, vanished over the post-1984 period.
