摘要：In this paper we estimate a Phillips curve for South Africa
using a bounded random-walk model. Central bank credibility,
the slope of the Phillips curve, the natural rate of unemployment,
and the central bank’s inflation target band are
time varying. We find that the slope of the Phillips curve
has flattened since the mid-2000s—particularly after the Great
Recession—which is in line with the findings in most advanced
countries. Our results do not lend support to the hypothesis
that the ability of the South African Reserve Bank to hit
its inflation target has decreased. With respect to the faith
in the IT regime as measured by the degree to the extent of
which inflation expectations are anchored to the target, our
results indicate that inflation persistence has increased from
1994 to 2001, remained constant from 2001 to 2008, and eventually
increased around 2008. This pattern is different from
that of advanced countries where expectations have become
better anchored relatively early in the IT regime. Moreover, we
find that the increased stability of inflation expectations after
2008—which coincides with the Great Financial Crisis—is not
only a result of good policy but also of “good luck.”.
