摘要：We investigate how the cross-sectional heterogeneity of
firms’ inflation expectations reflects information availability
and awareness of recent macroeconomic developments, observable
firm characteristics, and broader macroeconomic developments
using the Bank of Italy’s survey on businesses’ inflation
and growth expectations. We find that, on average, about
half of the dispersion of expectations is traceable to a lack of
information about the most recent price developments; firms
incorporate new information into their expectations within a
quarter; the dispersion of expectations is related in a statistically
significant way to some important aggregate economic
variables, and it is greater when current inflation is farther
away from the ECB’s price stability goal. Since 2015 the weight
attributed to prior beliefs of low inflation has steadily increased
and the uncertainty surrounding them has decreased. Furthermore,
since 2014 the empirical connection between the
dispersion of expectations and the distance from the ECB
price stability goal has become considerably weaker. These two
facts suggest an increased risk of inflation expectations being
de-anchored.
