期刊名称：Journal of Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics
印刷版ISSN：1690-4532
电子版ISSN：1690-4524
出版年度：2019
卷号：17
期号：4
页码：26-32
出版社：International Institute of Informatics and Cybernetics
摘要： Short-range wind speed predictions for subtropical region is performed by applying Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique to the hourly time series representative of the site. To train the ANN and validate the technique, data for one year are collected by one tower, with anemometers installed at heights of 101.8, 81.8, 25.7, and 10.0 m. Different ANN configurations to Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), a deep learning algorithm based method, are applied for each site and height. A quantitative analysis is conducted and the statistical results are evaluated to select the configuration that best predicts the real data. These methods have lower computational costs than other techniques, such as numerical modelling. The proposed method is an important scientific contribution for reliable large-scale wind power forecasting and integration into existing grid systems in Uruguay. The best results of the short-term wind speed forecasting was for MLP, which performed the forecasts using a hybrid method based on recursive inference, followed by LSTM, at all the anemometer heights tested, suggesting that this method is a powerful tool that can help the Administración Nacional de Usinas y Transmissiones Eléctricas manage the national energy supply.
