期刊名称：Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management
印刷版ISSN：2065-3913
电子版ISSN：2065-3921
出版年度：2016
卷号：11
期号：4
页码：30-45
出版社：Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Academy of Economic Studies
摘要：The unplanned urbanisation causes severe environmental, economic and social impacts to a region and its
surroundings. Without providing adequate infrastructure, peri-urban areas might turn into dispersing and
disorganised urban sprawls. The concept of sustainability already confirms the need of integrated urban and water
resources management. For that, policymakers and planners need to be aware of the impacts caused by land use
and land cover changes while urbanising a region. Remote sensing techniques and GIS frameworks provide tools
to process and achieve data in a less expensive, time-efficient and accurate way. In addition, hydrological models
simulate the effects of different land use change scenarios on the basin runoff or discharge. For such assessment,
the runoff curve number method is widely used due to requiring a few parameters, such as land use and land
cover classes and hydrological soil groups. However, for the determination of hydrological soil groups, the
saturated hydraulic conductivity data is not always available in weathered soils like the ones located in Brazil. In
the study, the method used for the hydrological soil group acquisition was based on the local physical and
mineralogical properties, more suitable for the regional conditions and available data. This paper presents the final
assessment results showing the most flood-susceptible areas of Juqueriquere River Basin due to land use and
land cover changes predicted by the City Master Plan development.
关键词：Land use and land cover changes; urbanisation; flood susceptibility; Curve Number; GIS.
