出版社：Economic Laboratory for Transition Research Podgorica
摘要：Investment plays a very important role in the economy, ensures its
sustainable growth, contributes to the improvement of the living
standards of the population. The most common mistake of planning
investment projects is the insufficient development of risks that may
affect the profitability of projects. The purpose of the paper is the
formalizing the normal distribution for investment project evaluation
using the Monte Carlo method. Such formalizing should allow to
present normal distribution in a form that is understandable for nonspecialists
in mathematical statistics. A user can easily calculate the
standard deviation value and determine the limits of the confidence
interval and the range of deviation from the mean value. Such mistakes
can lead to incorrect investment decisions and significant
losses. The desire to minimize risk requires developing a risk model.
One of the risk assessment tools is the Monte Carlo method, which
combines and develops both methods of sensitivity analysis and
scenario analysis. In the Monte Carlo method, risk analysis is performed
using models of possible outcomes where any factor that is
characterized by uncertainty is replaced by a probability distribution.
Some types of distributions such as normal distribution is used less
frequently, because their use requires special knowledge in the field
of mathematics. In this paper, the aim is to formalize the normal
distribution for use of non-specialists in mathematical statistics.
Object of study is the risk assessment of investment projects. Subject
of study is the normal distribution formalization for investment
project evaluation. As the result the formulas for investment project
variables and the form for normal distribution formalization in MS
Excel are proposed. The empirical result is an experiment, which
identify a pseudo-random numbers sequence as normally distributed.
It facilitates the work of an expert and allows him to use the
normal distribution variables correctly.
关键词：Investment project;
economic;
Monte Carlo method;
normal distribution;
confidence interval;
