期刊名称：International Journal of Computer Science and Network
印刷版ISSN：2277-5420
出版年度：2017
卷号：6
期号：6
页码：766-770
出版社：IJCSN publisher
摘要：Classical regression analysis is a statistical technique for modeling, forecasting and investigating the relationship between
response variable and explanatory variables. However, there are model adequacy must be checked on residual model i.e.
autocorrelation. The autocorrelation problem can be solved by modeling the residual of regression model into model that specifically
incorporates the autocorrelation structure. Autocorrelation can be caused by residual of regression model increasing over time. The
time series regression model is one of the analyzes used to accommodate the model residual which increasing over time. This study
used data on the broad proportion of rice blast (Pyricularia grisea) attacks. The purpose of this study is to forecast the broad proportion
of rice blast attacks used classical regression model and time series regression model. Evaluate forecast values used mean absolute
percentage error (MAPE). The comparison results showed that the forecast of time series regression model better than classical
regression model.
关键词：forecasting; MAPE; pyricularia grisea; regression; time series regression model
