期刊名称：Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
印刷版ISSN：2307-0331
电子版ISSN：2312-9824
出版年度：2018
卷号：11
期号：5
页码：49-60
DOI：10.15838/esc.2018.5.59.3
出版社：ISEDT RAS
摘要：The article considers economic growth in Russia in the context of fundamental concepts that
include the formalization of the mechanisms of economic development from the standpoint of determining
the relationship and substantiating the optimal ratio of production factors for Russia’s GDP. In the
framework of the study, we address four problems. First, we substantiate the model of production of
Russia’s GDP, expressing the functional relationship between the volume of GDP, on the one hand, and
the production factors such as labor (number of people employed in the Russian economy) and capital
(investment in fixed capital). The model is consistent with the initial statistical data, so that the coefficient of determination between the model data and real data is more than 99%. Second, we substantiate the
optimal ratio between investment and employment for the purpose of increasing Russia’s GDP. Third, we
analyze in detail how these optimal ratios correspond to the real processes of GDP production. On this
basis, we identify the fundamental problems and possibilities of economic growth in the current economic
model, taking into account the impact of the pension reform. We prove that the increase in GDP in Russia,
given the current structure of the economy, is possible mainly due to the growth of investment. Fourth,
on the basis of modeling, we consider the possibility of increasing Russia’s GDP through investment
(compliance of the model with the initial data is good, the coefficient of determination is more than
98%). Our assessment shows that in order to provide GDP growth at the level not lower than 3% per year,
which is set out in the May 2018 Decree of the President, the growth of investments in fixed capital should
be at least 5.4% per year.
