期刊名称：Social Transformations in Contemporary Society
印刷版ISSN：2345-0126
出版年度：2016
期号：4
页码：121-131
出版社：Mykolas Romeris University
摘要：Purpose. The article deals with the problems of identifying the future that is decoded in
national strategic documents. Due to complexity of their writing process often public sector
strategies include abstract and vague goals and objectives. They represent different,
sometimes conflicting interpretations and do not indicate precisely desired changes in future.
In order to understand what kind of future is presented in strategic document, the document
should be analyzed through lens of different perceptions.
Design/methodology/approach. The main research problem is the multiplicity and
ambiguity of public strategic documents, in this particular study case – "Lithuanian
Innovation Strategy 2010-2020". The article attempts to identify the scope of desired changes
in "Lithuanian Innovation Strategy 2010-2020 by using method – Causal layered analysis
(supported by narrative foresight).
Research limitations/implications. The Causal layered analysis has its own drawbacks.
During implementation of this method there is a need to identify and create idealistic
definitions of problems and solutions for each perceptional layer in order to be able to assign
tasks and objectives of the strategy to the proper layer. Preparation of those idealistic
definitions depends on the procedure, by which those layers are described. Therefore, in order
to have a higher degree of objectivity, those layers have to be identified at least by the several
experts in that field.
Findings. Analysis of Lithuanian Innovation Strategy for 2010-2020 showed that the
Causal layered analysis can be used to identify scope of expected changes. This method of
analysis overcomes the ambiguity of public strategy documents by attaching goals and tasks
to different layers of perception. Such breakdown of the goals into different layers of
perception enables research to evaluate and measure the scope of envisioned changes.
Practical implications. The Causal layered analysis gives an instrument for the
examination of political documents that are aimed at the future. It gives a theoretical
structure, which can decode political documents and give insights about the scope of expected
changes.
Originality/Value. This research gives not only insights about the scope of desired
changes that are anticipated in objectives and tasks of Innovation strategy of Lithuania, but it
is one of the first attempts to use Causal layered analysis in Lithuanian context.
