期刊名称：Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
印刷版ISSN：1068-5502
出版年度：2018
卷号：43
期号：3
页码：457-468
出版社：WAEA
摘要：The USDA produces four forecasts of net farm income for each year; these forecasts are closelymonitored by decision makers across the agricultural sector. However, little is known about theperformance of these forecasts. Traditional forecast evaluation tests suggest that between 1975and 2016, the long-horizon forecasts systematically under-predicted realized values. In addition,the shorter-horizon forecast revisions overreact to new information. The findings suggest thatforecast users should adjust their expectations and that the USDA may want to consider otherforecast approaches to supplement current procedures.
关键词：fixed;event forecasts; forecast evaluation; net farm income
