摘要：In this paper it is hypothesized that premature deindustrialization is related to theintersectoral terms of trade between agriculture and manufacturing. Using a dualistic modelit is shown that factors which raise the price of agricultural goods relative to manufacturedgoods slow the rate of structural change from agriculture to manufacturing. Data from anumber of Southeast Asian countries is used to create a panel data set to test the hypothesis.Indeed a rise in the relative price of agricultural goods does indeed slow structural changeand that on important factor raising this relative price ratio has been the elimination ofpolicies which indirectly tax agriculture. The policy implication is that in order to avoid thisunexpected consequence of policy reform government policy must be aimed at dramaticallyincreasing productivity growth in agriculture.
关键词：Dualism; Intersectoral Terms of Trade; Deindustrialization; Southeast Asia;JEL Classification: O14; O13; O10;1; INTRODUCTION;Since the work of Lewis (1954) and Ranis and Fei (1961) the concept of dualism has;played an important role in theories of economic development; This perspective sees the;economy of a developing nation as composed of a number of different sectors (for;simplicity in theorizing; usually two sectors) with productivity in some of these sectors;being high; approaching levels found in higher income countries; and in others;productivity being very low; These differences tend to persist ever long periods of time;with a wide variety of explanations put forward to explain the persistence of these;differences;;From the dualistic perspective one can view economic growth and development as;the result
