期刊名称：International Research Journal of Finance and Economics
印刷版ISSN：1450-2887
电子版ISSN：1450-2887
出版年度：2019
期号：174
页码：58-66
出版社：European Journals Inc.
摘要：As far as the financial market is concerned, every burst of the bubble has had a major impact on the national economy, leading to an increase in the unemployment rate. Identifying the financial bubble and predicting its bursting time has been a hot topic in finance academic research. This paper adopts the stochastic index (K value), the relative strength index (RSI value) and the positive deviation as the major indicators of stock market bubbles. When the K value and the RSI value reach 85, the deviation deviates from the standard of the past five years moving average, it is considered that there is a bubble in the stock market. On this basis, observe whether the bubble will burst and the time required for bursting. From the empirical results, it can be seen that the bubbles identified by the three countries using the technical indicators have a bursting probability greater than 87%. Comparing the three countries of America, Germany and Japan, we find that the United States is the most matured stock market in the world. Its bubble burst time is short and its impact on the market is small when it breaks. The Germany bubble burst time is also short, but it possibly shocks the stock market. While Japan's bubble burst time is generally longer, which makes the bubble expand and lead to a greater chance of shocking the market when bubbles burst.
关键词：Bubbles; Technical Indicators; Bias; Moving Average; Bursting Time
