期刊名称：Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies
出版年度：2019
卷号：21
期号：1
页码：1-31
出版社：Loyola University Chicago
摘要：This paper studies the evolution of three macroeconomic
variables (namely current fiscal expenditures, public debt,
and consumer-price inflation) around the time of the
onset of armed conflicts during 1950–2016. The authors
compare the performance of these variables in conflict-afflicted
economies with economies that did not experience
social conflict. The analyses cover episodes of conflict from
around the world and study the evolution of these variables
during the five years prior to and five years after the
onset of conflicts. Further, four alternative definitions of
social conflict are used to ascertain the robustness of the
econometric results. The evidence suggests that current
fiscal expenditures and public debt (both as a share of gross
domestic product) in conflict-afflicted economies tend to
be higher than in non-conflict economies prior to the onset
of conflict, begin to rise further prior to the date of the onset
of conflict, and stay relatively high after the onset of conflict.
In contrast, there is little evidence that inflation is higher
in conflict-afflicted economies, prior to or after the onset
of conflict. These differential trends between conflict-afflicted
and non-conflict economies shed new light on the
existing literature on macroeconomic populism, and on key
macroeconomic aspects of the economics of post-conflict
reconstruction.
