期刊名称：Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies
出版年度：2019
卷号：21
期号：1
页码：1-21
出版社：Loyola University Chicago
摘要：This paper aims simultaneously to study the global dynamic relationship of oil prices,
financial liquidity, and geopolitical risk, on the one hand, and the economic performance of
oil-dependent economies on the other. Global and country-specific dynamics are studied
together in a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model that allows different lag structures
for different variables in different countries. Impulse response functions from the estimated
model suggest that new waves of high oil prices are unlikely, despite the likely continuation
of high global financial liquidity and heightened geopolitical risk, which had driven earlier
episodes of very high oil prices. With oil remaining at modest to low prices by recent
historical standards, we study the prospects for economic growth in oil-dependent economies
through dramatic increases in domestic investment, as planned under Visions 2030 of a
number of Arab economies, and conclude that success is unlikely.
