摘要：This paper examines the possible Brexit
scenarios and their impacts on the Common Agricultural
Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU) with particular
focus on Lithuania. The paper outlines the scientific
discourse on the imminent modifications of the CAP after
the Brexit along with changes in the EU budget. The paper
was prepared during the beginning of Brexit negotiations,
with withdrawal terms not being publicly disclosed. Thus,
the most likely assumptions have been accepted in order to
model the scenarios. The possible effects of Brexit on the
agriculture of the small EU Member States are discussed
taking the case of Lithuania as an example. The empirical
analysis showed that, in the case of three different Brexitinduced
CAP modifications, Lithuanian agricultural sector
may lose 1% to 20% of financial support under the CAP
direct payment mechanism. The corresponding loss under
these scenarios is quantified for agricultural sectors of all
the EU Member States.
关键词：Brexit; common agricultural policy; scenario
modelling; Lithuania;
