期刊名称：International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science
电子版ISSN：2083-8492
出版年度：2018
卷号：28
期号：1
页码：1-16
DOI：10.2478/amcs-2018-0013
出版社：De Gruyter Open
摘要：A deterministic mathematical model of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) disease is introduced. Medical
masks, supportive care treatment and a government campaign about the importance of medical masks will be involved in
the model as time dependent variables. The problem is formulated as an optimal control one to minimize the number of
infected people and keep the intervention costs as low as possible. Assuming that all control variables are constant, we
find a disease free equilibrium point and an endemic equilibrium point explicitly. The existence and local stability criteria
of these equilibria depend on the basic reproduction number. A sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number with
respect to control parameters tells us that the intervention on medical mask use and the campaign about the importance
of medical masks are much more effective for reducing the basic reproduction number than supportive care intervention.
Numerical experiments for optimal control problems are presented for three different scenarios, i.e., a scenario of different
initial conditions for the human population, a scenario of different initial basic reproduction numbers and a scenario of
different budget limitations. Under budget limitations, it is much better to implement the medical mask intervention in the
field, rather than give supportive care to control the spread of the MERS disease in the endemic prevention scenario. On
the other hand, the medical mask intervention should be implemented partially together with supportive care to obtain the
lowest number of infected people, with the lowest cost in the endemic reduction scenario.
