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  • 标题:Cross-Validating Synthetic Controls
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Martin Becker ; Stefan Klößner ; Gregor Pfeifer
  • 期刊名称:Economics Bulletin
  • 电子版ISSN:1545-2921
  • 出版年度:2018
  • 卷号:38
  • 期号:1
  • 页码:1-8
  • 出版社:Economics Bulletin
  • 摘要:While the literature on synthetic control methods mostly abstracts from out-of-sample measures, Abadie et al. (2015) have recently introduced a cross-validation approach. This technique, however, is not well-defined since it hinges on predictor weights which are not uniquely defined. We fix this issue, proposing a new, well-defined cross-validation technique, which we apply to the original Abadie et al. (2015) data. Additionally, we discuss how this new technique can be used for comparing different specifications based on out-of-sample measures, avoiding the danger of cherrypicking.
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