期刊名称：Urban, Planning and Transport Research: An Open Access Journal
电子版ISSN：2165-0020
出版年度：2020
卷号：8
期号：1
页码：1-28
DOI：10.1080/21650020.2020.1713209
出版社：Taylor and Francis Ltd
摘要：Understanding the viability and impact of out-of-town shopping
centres is of equal importance for property developers, retailers,
and city planners. In the current study, we aim to model and predict
behavioural loyalty (operationalised as relative shopping frequencies,
RSF) for an existing out-of-town shopping centre. Two separate sets
of quantile regression models, one consisting of demographic independents
and the other behavioural independents, were constructed.
Two datasets, sampled in 2006 and 2011, enabled
evaluation of the predictive power of our models and independents.
To compare the performance of our explanatory variables over time,
models with interaction were used. The results indicate that in the
short-run (5–15 years), forecasts based on the current retail provision
and consumer demographics together with information on proposed
retail agglomerations in the area are likely to give sufficient information
about the future viability of a shopping centre.
