首页    期刊浏览 2024年12月01日 星期日
登录注册

文章基本信息

  • 标题:Epidemic dynamics with a time-varying susceptibility due to repeated infections
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Yukihiko Nakata ; Ryosuke Omori
  • 期刊名称:Journal of Biological Dynamics
  • 印刷版ISSN:1751-3758
  • 电子版ISSN:1751-3766
  • 出版年度:2019
  • 卷号:13
  • 期号:1
  • 页码:567-585
  • DOI:10.1080/17513758.2019.1643043
  • 出版社:Taylor & Francis
  • 摘要:In this paper, we consider the impact of heterogeneous susceptibility on disease transmission dynamics, using a simple mathematical model formulated by a system of ordinary differential equations. Our model describes a time-varying immunity level, which is enhanced by reinfection and diminished by waning immunity. Through mathematical analysis, we show that unexpected outbreaks, called delayed outbreaks, occur even when the basic reproduction number is less than one. A reallocation of susceptibility at the individual level, by repeated infections, in the host population induces delayed outbreaks.
  • 关键词:Epidemic model ; reinfection threshold ; heterogeneous susceptibility ; delayed outbreak
国家哲学社会科学文献中心版权所有