摘要：The largest outbreak of Ebola to date is the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak, with more than 10,000 cases and over 4000 deaths reported in Liberia alone. To control the spread of the outbreak, multiple interventions were implemented: identification and isolation of cases, contact tracing, quarantining of suspected contacts, proper personal protection, safely conducted burials, improved education, social awareness and individual protective measures. Devising rigorous methodologies for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the control measures implemented to stop an outbreak is of paramount importance. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of the 2014 Ebola outbreak interventions. We rely on model selection to determine the best model that explains the 2014 Ebola outbreak data in Liberia which is the simplest model with a social distancing term. We couple structural and practical identifiability analysis with the computation of confidence intervals to pinpoint the uncertainty in the parameter estimations. Finally, we evaluate the efficacy of control measures using the Ebola model with social distancing. Among all the control measures, we find that social distancing had the most impact on the control of the 2014 Ebola epidemic in Libreria followed by isolation and quarantining.
关键词：Ebola ; outbreak ; mathematical models ; differential equations ; Akaike Information Criterion ; reproduction number ; control measures ; mathematical epidemiology
