期刊名称：Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development
印刷版ISSN：2222-2855
电子版ISSN：2222-2855
出版年度：2019
卷号：10
期号：23
页码：13-23
DOI：10.7176/JESD/10-23-02
出版社：The International Institute for Science, Technology and Education (IISTE)
摘要：The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value of all goods and services produced within the boundary of a nation in a year. This paper aims to apply time series tools and forecast GDP growth in the Bangladesh economy. Forecasting of time series is an important topic in macroeconomics. We collected the data from World Development Indicators (WDI) and it has been collected over a period of 37 years by WDI, World Bank. Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) tests were applied to investigate the stationary character of the data. Stata and R statistical software was used to build a class of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing methods to model the GDP growth. We applied several ARIMA (P, I, Q) models and employed the ARIMA (1,1,1) model as best for forecasting. This ARIMA (1,1,1) model was chosen based on the minimum values of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Also, we applied the Exponential Smoothing to forecast the GDP growth rate. In addition, among the Exponential Smoothing models, the triple exponential model better analyzed the data based on lowest Sum of Square Error (SSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Using these models, the values of future GDP growth rates are forecasted. Statistical results show that Bangladesh’s GDP growth rate is an increasing trend that will continue rising in the future. This finding will help policymakers and academicians to formulate economic and business strategies more precisely ..
关键词：Stationary time series; ARIMA; Time Series Forecasting; Exponential Smoothing; GDP growth rate; GDP growth in Bangladesh
