出版社：University of Bucharest and Nicolae Titulescu University
摘要：A project consists of a number of interrelated tasks whose aim is to produce a specific result.A project risk analysis consists of analyzing schedule, cost risk, quality of the final product etc. Acost risk analysis consists of looking at the various costs associated with a project, their uncertaintiesand any risks or opportunities that may affect these costs. The distributions of cost are added up in arisk analysis to determine the uncertainty in the total cost of the project. A schedule risk analysislooks at the time required to complete the various tasks associated with a project, and theinterrelationship between these tasks. In this paper we want to study the various risks associated withthe project. We start this study with the assumption that a project’s cost and duration are linkedtogether and also cost elements and schedule durations are correlated. The normal uncertainties inthe cost items are modeled by continuous distributions like the Pert or triangular distribution. Forproject schedule modeling the most flexible environment is spreadsheet. We are interested inbuilding blocks that typically make up a schedule risk analysis (also a cost risk analysis) and thenshow how these elements are combined to produce a realistic model. In the same time we wantimplement software tools for run Monte Carlo simulations on standard project planningapplications.
