期刊名称：Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
印刷版ISSN：2307-0331
电子版ISSN：2312-9824
出版年度：2020
卷号：13
期号：1
页码：160-173
DOI：10.15838/esc.2020.1.67.9
出版社：ISEDT RAS
摘要：The article is devoted to a meaningful analysis of the impact of the retirement age increase onthe economy of the Murmansk Oblast and the attitude of its residents. The pension system, which includesprotectionism for the population of the North, has a significant impact on the economy, social life, andmigration of the population. Therefore, the assessment of the impact of the retirement age changes on socialand economic processes is particularly relevant for the Northern and Arctic territories. Three objectiveswere achieved: 1. Considering the change of the retirement age, the forecast for the number of able-bodiedpopulation of the Murmansk Oblast was made. It is shown that the increase of the retirement age will haltthe steady decline of able-bodied population in the region, but it will not break the trend. Comparisonwith the results of the forecast for Russia as a whole showed that it qualitatively distinguishes the situationin the region from the national situation. 2. The features of GRP production in the Murmansk region,based on economic and statistical modeling, are reviewed. It is established that, with the current structureof the economy, a slight reduction of the decrease rate of the able-bodied population number will not havea significant impact on the production of GRP. 3. On the basis of the survey, conducted according to arepresentative regional sample of the Murmansk Oblast in 2019, attitudes of the Murmansk’s populationwere revealed. There is a very painful perception of the retirement age increase by the population; thereis a persistent opinion that change of the retirement age does not meet the interests of the populationof the North and the Arctic. A negative effect of the retirement age increase was diagnosed: a change ofmigration attitudes among the most significant group of the Murmansk Oblast’s population (from theperspectives of regional production) – people of young (18–29 years old) and middle (30–49 years old)ages. For example, a significant number of members of these age groups have already decided to leave theMurmansk Oblast. They link their decision to the factor of the retirement age increase. Thus, the positiveeffect – a decrease of the rate of the able-bodied population decline in the Murmansk region, caused bythe retirement age increase – will be offset by a negative effect – the growth of the rate of migration lossesin the region..
关键词：retirement age increase; Arctic; Murmansk Oblast; GRP; number of able;bodied population;modelling; survey; people’s attitides.
