摘要：An opportunity that now exists for probabilistic forecasts of western North Pacific tropical cyclone formations and tracks on timescales of 7-30 days is demonstrated from the 51-member European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts 32-day ensemble predictions made once a week during the 2008 and 2009 seasons. A methodology has been developed to match the ensemble member vortices to form ensemble storms, and a weighted-mean vector motion technique is applied to generate the track. An objective validation relative to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center best-tracks is supplemented with a subjective evaluation of the quality of the agreement.
