摘要：Håkan Leifman: Estimations of unrecorded alcohol consumption levels and trends in 14 European countries Aims: To map the extent of unrecorded alcohol consumption in the countries within the EU, including point estimates of the quantity of unrecorded consumption and the development over time. Data and method: The countries under investigation are 13 EU countries (Greece and Luxembourg excluded) and Norway. The study makes use of data collected earlier – mainly survey data – and of a recently completed general population survey directed to random samples of the general population aged 18–64 in six EU member states. An indirect method was used to assess the development of unrecorded consumption over time in each country by estimating the discrepancy between the observed development of alcohol-related mortality and the development that would be expected from changes in recorded consumption only. Findings: The unrecorded consumption is highest in the northern European countries, and has increased from about 1 litre in the 1980s to 2 litres per adult in the second half of the 1990s. The UK, too, shows clear signs of increased unrecorded alcohol consumption as of the mid-1980s. In the remaining countries, the changes in unrecorded alcohol appear to have been more modest over time. The quantities of unrecorded consumption in the Mediterranean countries in the 1990s are roughly estimated at 1 litre pure alcohol per adult and show no signs of increases over time. The general population survey indicated low quantities of personal imports of alcohol in Southern Europe (France and Italy) – one decilitre in France, less than half a decilitre in Italy – compared to about 1 litre or more in Finland, Sweden and the UK. Conclusions: The downward trend in recorded consumption in the Mediterranean countries for the past 20–30 years is most likely a real decrease in alcohol consumption: the large drop in recorded alcohol consumption in these countries has not been accompanied by increases in unrecorded consumption. When the total consumption (recorded plus unrecorded) is taken into account, and not just the recorded alcohol, the higher unrecorded consumption in the “low-consuming” countries would appear slightly to narrow down the differences between the countries. However, despite differences in unrecorded alcohol, the relative position between the countries in their total consumption in the mid-1990s remains to a large extent unchanged.
