摘要：The crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price shock affects the international trade as well as the domestic economy of a country and becomes one of the central issues in today's international economic assessment. This study analyzed the determinants of WTI price to predict the percentage price change as result of determinant changes. It employed vector error correction model (VECM) and used the monthly data of WTI price, supply, demand, gold, S&P 500, T-Note, US dollar index and US GDP from February 1990 to July 2017. Empirical results indicated that WTI supply and demand were the determinants of WTI prices. The supply variable was a major determinant of WTI price. An increase in growth of WTI supply would lead to a decrease in growth of price. On the other hand, an increase in growth of WTI demand would lead to an increase in growth of price.
