摘要：We compared the cumulative seismic slip of interplate earthquakes (≥M5.5) with relative plate motion at subduction zones.By assuming that each interplate earthquake occurred on a stick–slip patch, we used the slip history of each patch to calculate the interplate slip in the surrounding area.We considered that areas in which interplate earthquakes occurred but that had small cumulative slips compared with relative plate motion were accumulating strain, and we calculated the size of these areas.We first used this method to test the rupture areas of six M9-class interplate earthquakes that have occurred during the past 100 years.The cumulative seismic slip preceding and following the six earthquakes was smaller than the relative plate motion in the rupture areas of the earthquakes.We interpret the areas of slip-deficient stick–slip patches to be the rupture areas of future huge earthquakes.We applied the same procedure to global subduction zones and found that slip-deficient stick–slip patches with large spatial extents (equivalent to the rupture area of M9-class earthquakes) occur in an additional 25 locations.Considering that six M9-class earthquakes have occurred in the past 110 years and that the recurrence interval in each case is probably between a few hundred and a thousand years, it is not surprising that 25 regions globally are capable of producing M9-class earthquakes.These regions may be the most likely candidates for the rupture areas of future M9-class interplate earthquakes.
