出版社：LLC “Consulting Publishing Company “Business Perspectives”
摘要：This study is set out to investigate the impact of fiscal policy variables(capital expenditure,recurrent expenditure and direct income tax)on economic growth in Nigeria.The study adopts a growth accounting framework that specifies economic growth as a function of the fiscal policy variables.Using a time series data for the period 1970-2012,the study tests for the presence of unit root test,using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test for stationarity.It is discovered that all the variables are integrated at I(1).The Johansen cointegration reveals the presence of a long run relationship between economic growth and all the dependent variables(CX,RX and TX).The VECM analysis indicates that capital expenditure and recurrent expenditure are positively related and statistically significant in determining economic growth in the long run.As expected,direct income tax is inversely related and statistically significant in determining economic growth in the long run.A 1% increase in capital expenditure leads to an increase of 3.94% in income.A 1% increase in recurrent expenditure leads to an increase of 3.22% in income.On the other hand,a 1% increase in direct income tax leads to a fall of 6.83% in national output.Moreover,only tax determines economic growth in the short run, as a 1% in direct income tax causes national output to fall by 0.39%.These results meet apriori expectations with respect to their signs.GDP adjusts to its long run equilibrium when there is a shock at a slow speed of 3.07%.The pairwise granger causality indicates that causality relationship does not exist between any of the fiscal policy variables and economic growth.Based on these results,the study recommends the adoption of tax policies that would spur growth instead of retarding growth with a wide margin,as has been observed from the study.Efforts should be made to skew the pattern of public spending towards capital expenditure as it leads to higher growth than recurrent expenditure.
