出版社：LLC “Consulting Publishing Company “Business Perspectives”
摘要：This paper matches the sensitivity analysis of two-stage Discounted Cash Flow(DCF) models to the assumption of Long Term Steady-State.It proposes the definition of 'Joint Sensitivity'to measure the effect on the estimated value of joint variations of forecast inputs.We find that the length of the first period of explicit forecast is one of the most important of these parameters. The first stage of the DCF coincides with the end of the Competitive Advantage Period(CAP), defined as the period during which the return on capital can be higher than its cost.This paper pro?poses a measure of long-term Excess Return that assesses the theoretical reliability of a DCF valuation by verifying if the return on invested capital is asymptotically equal to its average cost. Company valuations that present a positive value of Excess Return need particular attention,in that they could implicitly assume the maintenance of a competitive advantage for an indefinite period.
