摘要：In this paper the main macroeconomic parameters and provided projections of their movements in the Republic of Serbia for the period 2015- 2017 were analyzed.Projections of the main macroeconomic aggregates are based on the use of a tailored financial programming model(MEP1)that represents a set of statistical and econometric methods with a view to correlating the endogenous and exogenous variables of the entire macroeconomic system.The task of the applied financial programming model was to describe two scenarios of economic development of Republic of Serbia until 2017.As the main conclusion of this paper,it can be stated that there is no long-term and sustainable development of Serbia without a significantly higher share of domestic savings in the distribution of GDP as well as changes in its structure in terms of strengthening dinar savings.Main contribution of the paper should be argumentation that development model of Serbia from the first decade of XXI century,based on substantially increased aggregate demand financed from privatization revenues and rising indebtedness of country has to be changed in favour of higher domestic savings,investments and on that ground improved competitiveness of national economy.
其他摘要：U radu su analizirani osnovni makroekonomski parametri i date projekcije njihovog kretanja u period 2015-2017.godine u Republici Srbiji. Projekcije osnovnih makroekonomskih agregata su bazirane na modelu finansijskog programiranja(MEP1)koji uključuje niz statističkih i ekonometrijskih metoda kako bi se povezale endogene i egzogene varijable celog makroekonomskog sistema.Cilj primene posebno razvijenog modela finansijskog programiranja je bio da se analiziraju dva scenarija razvoja Srbije do 2017.godine.U radu su navedeni samo osnovni zaključci do kojih se došlo primenom modela.Osnovni zaključak rada je da bez značajnog podizanja učešća štednje u raspodeli BDP-a nema dugoročnog i održivog razvoja Srbije,a takođe je potrebno i jačanje dinarske štednje.Ključni doprinos rada je izneta argumentacija da model razvoja Srbije iz prve decenije XXI veka zasnovan na rastu agregatne tražnje koji je finansiran prihodima od privatizacije i rastućim zaduživanjem zemlje mora biti zamenjen u korist porasta domaće štednje,investicija i na tome zasnovanoj poboljšanoj konkuretnosti domaće ekonomije.
