摘要：Transmission mechanism of monetary policy recently has been subject to several studies in Serbia.The so called "black box” of monetary policy is investigated with aim to identify the effects of transmission channel in environment where exchange rate has a dominant role in central bank operations.Therefore,it is a challenge to approach this problem in inflation targeting regime where key interest rate is expected to prevail as a main policy instrument.The study employs unrestricted Vector Autoregression model for estimating significance of exchange rate and interest rate channel. As expected,exchange rate has far more stronger influence on inflation,even though there are some signs of interest rate channel existence.Introducing Euribor as endogenous variables in VAR system displayed important impact on real variables.
其他摘要：Transmisioni mehanizam monetarne politike je u skorije vreme bio predmet nekoliko studija u Srbiji.Tzv."crna kutija” monetarne politike istraživana je sa ciljem da se uoče efekti transmisionog mehanizma u okruženju sa dominantnom ulogom deviznog kursa kao instrumenta centralnebanke.Zbog toga,i sam je izazov suočiti se sa ovim problemom kada se u režimu ciljanja inflacije očekuje veća uloga referentne kamatne stope kao glavnog instrumenta monenetarne politike.U studiji je primenjen nerestrikovani model vektorske autoregresije kako bi se ispitao značaj kanala deviznog kursa i kanala kamatne stope.Kao što se moglo i očekivati,devizni kurs ima daleko jači uticaj na inflaciju nego što to ima referentna kamatna stopa,iako ima naznaka o postojanju kamatnog kanala.Uvođenje Euribor kamatne stope kao endogene varijable u VAR sistem dolazi se do zaključka da strana kamatna stopa ima značajan uticaj na kretanje realnih varijabli.
