摘要：The aim of this paper is to improve on the methodology set in previous attempts to estimate the impact of gross government debt to primary balances in a wide set of 21 CESEE countries.Since the result of the longlasting crisis in those countries is rising imbalance of public finances it is necessary to analyze what factors are causing such effects.Running the fixed effects,pooled and GMM regression it was found that both lagged government debt and output gap are positively related to primary balance.Moreover there was found evidence of non-linear relationship between primary balance and lagged debt,with fiscal fatigue occurrence at 70% threshold.Estimation of the augmented model shows that countercyclical response of primary balance is more pronounced in economic downturn relative to boom in cycle.
其他摘要：Cilj ovog rada je unapređenje metodologije postavljene u ranijim istraživanjima drugih autora za procenu uticaj javnog duga na bruto primarni bilans u velikom skupu od 21 zemlje CESEE regiona.Jedna od posledica dugotrajne krize u tim zemljama je porast disbalansa javnih finansija te je neophodno analizirati koji faktori izazivaju takve efekte.Primenom regresije na panel podatke utvrđeno je da državni dug sa docnjom i autput jaz imaju pozitivan uticaj na primarni bilans.Takođe je potvrđena nelinearne vezaizmeđu primarnog bilansa u i dug sa docnjom,sa pojavom fiskalnog zamora na nivou od 70%.Procena uvećanog modela pokazuje da je kontracikličan odgovor primanog bilansa izraženiji tokom ekonomske krize u odnosu na period prosperiteta.
