摘要：This paper presents the results of the research on the impact of non-performing loans to the systemic risk in the domestic banking system and a comparison with other countries in transition,as well as on certain EU countries.It is important to metion that the extreme bank-centricity caused the extension of the analysis to the entire financial sector of Serbia.Therefore,macroeconomic and macro-financial component of systemic risk were separated. In order to more precisely determine the main effects of non-performing loans in the propagation of systemic risk,the authors have created and used two new synthetic indicators in the research.The first is the macroeconomic contagion with non-performing loans(problematic loans expressed as a percentage of GDP),and the second is the infection of financial sector with nonperforming loans(the proportional share of these loans in the assets of the financial sector).Analysis of the period just before and during the current financial crisis and the recession(2007-2012)showed that the NPLs(nonperforming loans)are the main generator of systemic risk in the financial and real sectors of Serbia.In addition,the survey results show that the applied synthetic indicators measure total system risk and its basic components more accurately then the analytical,which have only been in use until now.Comparative analysis showed similar results,not only in the countries in transition, but also in developed ones.The results of this study provide guidance and represent an important input for economic policymakers,because the system-ic risk is the greatest immediate threat to economic prosperity and financial stability of each country.
其他摘要：Ovaj rad prikazuje rezultate istraživanja uticaja problematičnih kredita na sistemski rizik u domaćem bankarstvu i poređenje sa drugim zemljama u tranziciji i nekim zemljama EU.Ekstremna bankocentričnost je uzrokovala proširenje analize na celokupan finansijski sektor Srbije.Pri tome su razdvajane makroekonomska i makrofinansijska komponenta sistemskog rizika.U cilju preciznijeg utvrđivanja osnovnih efekata loših kredita u propagaciji sistemskog rizika autori su osmislili i koristili u istraživanju dva nova sintetička pokazatelja.Prvi je makroekonomska zaraženost problematičnim kreditima(problematični krediti iskazani u procentima BDP-a), a drugi zaraženost finansijskog sektora problematičnim kreditima (procentualni udeo ovih kredita u aktivi finansijskog sektora).Analiza vremenskog perioda neposredno pre i tokom aktuelne finansijske krize i recesije(2007-2012)pokazala je da su problematični krediti glavni generator sistemskog rizika u finansijskom i realnom sektoru Srbije.Uz to,rezultati istraživanja dokazuju da primenjeni sintetički pokazatelji preciznije mere ukupan sistemski rizik i njegove osnovne komponente nego analitički,koji su do sada isključivo bili korišćeni.Komprativna analiza je pokazala iste rezultate ne samo u tranzicionim,već i razvijenim zemljama.Rezultati ovog istraživanja daju smernice i predstavljaju značajan input kreatorima ekonomske politike, jer je sistemski rizik najveća neposredna pretnja ekonomskom prosperitetu i finansijskoj stabilnosti svake zemlje.
