摘要：The goal of this study is to investigate whether there are empirical proofs for sustainability of real exchange rate - real interest rate differential relation in Serbia – EMU case for the period between January 2007 and May 2012.Theoretical relation has been derived by combining uncovered interest rate parity and Fisher equation,while empirical testing has been based on time series cointegration concept and application of Johansen and EngleGranger cointegration test.The findings obtained have shown that real exchange rate index and real interest rate differential are not cointegrated series,i.e.that there is no long-run equilibrium relation between them.Based on such findings,it can be concluded that there are no empirical proofs that real exchange rate - real interest rate differential relation is a key to explain longterm dynamics of RSD/EUR real exchange rate.
其他摘要：Cilj ove studije jeste da se ispita da li postoje dokazi empirijske održivosti relacije realni devizni kurs - diferencijal realnih kamatnih stopa u slučaju Srbije i EMU za period od januara 2007.do maja 2012.godine.Teorijska veza izvedena je kombinovanjem nepokrivenog pariteta kamatnih stopa iFišerove jednačine,dok je empirijsko testiranje zasnovano na konceptu kointegracije vremenskih serija i primeni Johansenovog i Engl-Grejndžerovog testa.Rezultati do kojih smo došli pokazuju da indeks realnog deviznog kursa i diferencijal realnih kamatnih stopa nisu kointegrisane serije,odnosno da one ne formiraju dugoročnu ravnotežnu relaciju.Na osnovu ovakvih nalaza zaključujemo da ne postoje empirijski dokazi da relacija realni devizni kurs - diferencijal realnih kamatnih stopa predstavlja ključ za objašnjenje dugoročne dinamike realnog kursa dinara prema evru.
