期刊名称：Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance
印刷版ISSN：2460-6146
电子版ISSN：2460-6618
出版年度：2015
卷号：1
期号：1
页码：107-133
语种：English
出版社：Bank Indonesia
摘要：Indonesian Islamic banking market share projected by Bank Indonesia is an integral part in developing the industry in the country.By setting a projectionwhich will then be used as a benchmark 1 target,Islamic banks can make anecessary program to attract new customers which eventually increase its asset.Ifthe increase of the asset is significant,the Islamic bank market share may increase.The problem is that the current projection by Bank Indonesia seems to be offtarget.It means that the projection is pretty much above the actual value.Thispaper attempts to utilize two projection methods namely Spline and Auto-ARIMAwhich we think can provide a better result.This study uses the monthly datacovering period since January 2006 until December 2012.The result shows thatour projections,especially using Spline method,are closer to the actual value ofthe Islamic banking industry market share.It means that the gap between theprojection and the actual value of market share is lesser than the gap on the BankIndonesia calculation.Moreover,this study argue that,the projection of theIslamic banking market share made by B1 will not be achieved unless withgovernment support.So far,government has not made any policy which depositsome of the national budget in the Islamic bank.This study calculates that ifgovernment regularly depositing 1% of total National Government Budget inIslamic banks,the projection of Islamic banking market share made by B1 will beacheived.As a conclusion,the role of government is very significant in developingthe Islamic banking industry in Indonesia.
