摘要：In this study, yields of rainfed maize, beans, wheat, soybeans, sorghum, barley and potatoes were modeled under current conditions and under 28 scenarios of climate change. The methodology considered calibration of the FAO Aquacrop crop model for 24 specific case studies located in 14 states of Mexico. The climate scenarios considered were five models (CNRM, GFDL, HADGEM, MPI and Ensemble REA), two concentrations of radiative forcing (4.5 and 8.5 W*m-2) and three time horizons (2015-2039, 2045-2069 and 2075-2099). The results show decreases in yields for most of the case studies as a consequence of a decrease in amount and distribution of precipitation. Maize yield in hot dry climates could decrease up to 84% in the most severe scenarios, relative to the base scenario. Beans could have decreases of 10% and 40% in the northern part of the country, while in the northwest a 15% decrease in wheat yield is predicted. Soybeans could benefit, with increases of 15 to 40%. Sorghum and potatoes are expected to decrease in general for all the case studies, while barley would have increases and decreases, depending on the study area. The results urge taking action aimed toward differentiated adaptation for specific crops and regions. Thus, rainfed agriculture in Mexico is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
