摘要：We perform cost analysis for evaluating alternatives to effectively defend the threat of North Korean ballistic missiles. As alternatives;THAAD;SM-3;and L-SAM are considered;and we analyze the factors affecting to the cost of acquiring alternatives depending on the way to procure them;e.g.;by purchasing;or research & development (R&D). Assuming that each alternative can be operated for 30 years;the total cost;which consists of acquiring cost;operation/maintenance cost;and R&D cost;is compared using net present value. Furthermore;we perform sensitivity analysis for maintenance rate;terrain cost and increase rate of R&D cost that involve uncertainty for the future. Cost analysis results show that THAAD incurs the highest cost and SM-3 is the most economic alternative. However;sensitivity analysis shows that priority can be changed depending on uncertainty parameters. Although our results do not directly support decision-making on the best alternative due to its various uncertainties;these can provide a guideline on economic evaluation required for public policy decision-making process;especially under the situation that all the three alternatives cannot be acquired at the same time due to the limitation of defense budget..
