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  • 标题:Forecasting EUR/PLN Exchange Rate: the Role of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis in ESTVEC Models
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Adrian Burda ; Adrian Burda ; Błażej Mazur
  • 期刊名称:Dynamic Econometric Models
  • 印刷版ISSN:1234-3862
  • 电子版ISSN:2450-7067
  • 出版年度:2017
  • 卷号:17
  • 页码:97-114
  • DOI:10.12775/DEM.2017.006
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:Nicolaus Copernicus University Press
  • 摘要:The purpose of this paper is to verify empirical consequences of imposing various forms of purchasing power parity (PPP) within a class of smooth transition vector error correction models (ESTVECM) for analysis of EUR/PLN exchange rage. Empirical importance of exponential smooth transition functions is confronted with the linear errorcorrection mechanism. A class of competing models for recursive samples are compared by the likelihood ratio test, information criteria, and out of sample forecast accuracy measures.
  • 关键词:PPP; ESTVECM; cointegration; exchange rate forecasting
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