摘要：Local examples of how renewable energy targets can be fulfilled in the transport sector without compromising individual mobility will be critical as we approach peak-oil and tougher emission caps in the future. Globally, frontier cities that demonstrate best practice solutions might have an advantage when the situation becomes more acute and the urge for disseminating know-how between cities increases. The issue is complex, since sustainable traffic planning and renewable energy supply need to encompass a multi-stakeholder process, involving potential shifts in individual travel behavior, the development of future vehicle technologies, and requirements on more efficient energy supply chains. One prediction can be made: the transition to a non-carbon society will place immense pressure on the limited, solar, wind and bio energy assets. One attempt to create a local sustainable city district with zero net contribution to fossil fuel emissions is the ‘Stockholm Royal Seaport’ (SRS) in Sweden. Here, many of the key elements of a sustainable transport system are being planned for, such as optimum public transport provision, optimal biking/walking conditions, condensed city planning with a mixture of dwellings and office buildings equipped with virtual meeting technologies. Given this assumed ‘ideal’ situation for a sustainable transport system and the long-term target of 100% renewable energy use by 2030, this study analyzes the questions: ‘Is this target within reach, assuming various levels of more sustainable travel patterns?’ and if not, ‘What else is needed in order to meet target fulfilment?” The analysis, which is based on a combined forecasting/backcasting approach, comes to the conclusion that even though the SRS district in many respects could be regarded as ‘ideal’ for target fulfilment and bio-fuel assets in Sweden are favourable, feasible strategies to actually meet the requirements for a non-fossil energy supply are lacking unless the limits on the proportion of renewable energy assets allocated to transport are exceeded. These conclusions will hopefully work as an eye-opener on current planning perspectives and feed the discussion on how to guide development towards meeting the unavoidable renewable energy targets that must be fulfilled.
