摘要：In this research a theoretical model is put forward, which explains the impact of the clean development mechanism (CDM) on greenhouse gas emissions in Annex I and non-Annex I countries. This paper shows that on the one hand, emissions in the non-Annex I country decline because of abatement sponsored by the Annex I country under the CDM; on the other hand, global emissions may increase because (1) the Annex I country increases emissions in its own country after obtaining the Certified Emission Reduction (CER) credits, and (2) the non-Annex I country crowds out the benefits from the CDM projects by increasing its domestic emissions. For the CDM to be effective in reducing global emissions, the model demonstrates why partial CER credits should be given to the Annex I country that sponsors CDM projects in the non-Annex I country. The article also suggests that the CDM Executive Board should allow the CDM projects to be hosted by the non-Annex I countries that are producing at their optimum level because they have sufficiently high tolerance for pollution. The model explains why such countries will not expand their production and thus domestic emission in response to abatement sponsored by the Annex I country under the CDM project.
关键词：clean development mechanism (CDM); Kyoto Protocol; emission; abatement; incentive
