出版社：National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE)
摘要：Demographers usually ignore a stochastic nature of demographic rates, in particular of mortality rates. However, a growing interest in longevity and mortality of small population groups or areas requires plausible solutions for confidence estimation of mortality measures. This paper provides a formula for posterior distribution of death rates in a homogeneous group of population. We also propose a new approach to estimate confidence limits for the death rate. We show that confidence limits for aggregate mortality measures, including life expectancy, can be easily estimated using the posterior distribution of death rates and the methods of stochastic simulation.
其他摘要：В большинстве случаев демографы игнорируют стохастическую природу демографических коэффициентов, в том числе коэффициентов смертности. Но рост интереса к смертности и долголетию малых групп населения требует надежных решений для доверительного оценивани
关键词：demographic rate; demographic probability; confidence limits; life expectancy
