出版社：National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE)
摘要：It is believed that the central idea of the theory of the demographic transition from an equilibrium of high to an equilibrium of low mortality and fertility was formed and became generally recognized in the middle of the twentieth century. The article shows that this idea was developed by Herbert Spencer a hundred years before, although modern demographic transition theorists never refer to him as their predecessor. The main task of the article is to bring Spencer's arguments to the current debate about the present and the future of fertility, based on the premise that these arguments are not only not outdated, but are even today largely ahead of their time. The article does not deny Spencer's misconceptions about the mechanism of fertility decline in human society, but as to the causes of this decline, the higher level of generalization inherent in Spencer's scientific worldview predetermined an understanding of these causes deeper than that developed by modern theoretical demographers.
其他摘要：Считается, что центральная идея современной теории демографического перехода как перехода от равновесия высоких к равновесию низких смертности и рождаемости была сформирована и стала общепризнанной в середине ХХ века. В статье показано, что эта идея была
关键词：Spencer;demographic transition; mortality; fertility; ability to maintain life; ability to multiply; antagonism of reproduction and individualization; law of maintenance of species; equilibrium; causes of fertility decline; pro-natalist policy
其他关键词：Спенсер; демографический переход; смертность; рождаемость; способность сохранять жизнь; антагонизм размножения и индивидуализации; закон сохранения видов; равновесие; причины снижения рождаемости; пронаталистская политика
