摘要：The problem of the stability price level of goods or inflation is still an economic problem that is always faced by South Sulawesi Province. The inflation often occurs ahead of feast days such as Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha, Christmas, New Year and other feast days. Various kinds of efforts have been made, but the government as the policy maker to overcome this problem has not been able to control the causes of inflation in these major days. This research aims to find out the influence of Islamic feast days on inflation based on expenditure group in South Sulawesi Province. This research is quantitative research by using Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) method. The data used are secondary data, namely inflation rate data based on expenditure group in South Sulawesi Province in 2012- 2017, which are obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics of South Sulawesi Province. The results of this research indicate that inflation of foodstuff, processed food, beverage and tobacco groups have a significant influence on Islamic feast days, while the inflation of clothing, housing, health, education and transportation does not have a significant influence or increase on feast days. It is recommended for the government in formulating the policy in the future, through the coordination of Central Bank of Indonesia, should strictly control inflation in the expenditure group, so that the inflation rate remains stable. In anticipation of price jump at the start of the Ramadan month, the government should conduct market operations and maintain the stability of commodity supplies which are the causes of inflation ahead of Ramadan, especially food commodities, such as rice, chili, eggs, beef, cooking oil and others. The government should also directly monitor the price so that there is no speculation about these basic items.
