摘要：The developmental planning is crucial to be conducted by regency. Macroeconomic forecasting is often performed to give guidance in policy decision making for the stakeholders especially. The prediction of future macroeconomic conditions is needed by the government to carry out the planning and budgeting. This study predicts macro indicators in Hulu Sungai Utara (HSU) Regency in the period 2017-2022 because HSU Regency had the lowest real GDP and Human Development Index in South Kalimantan within the last five years. The method used is univariate forecasting, which includes the ARIMA model, exponential smoothing, and exponential smoothing with trend adjustment. The macroeconomic indicators used in this study are real Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP), economic growth, unemployment rate, and income distribution. The results of the analysis show that Brown's model is predicted that the real GDRP value tends to increase, forecasting using a simple model on economic growth and the ARIMA (0.0.0) model on the unemployment rate, had predicted tends to be constant. And, the Holt model predicts the income distribution tends to increase. The forecasting can be a significant feedback and consideration in the developmental planning, particularly in Hulu Sungai Utara Regency.
