摘要：As a result of the variation in exchange rate,the point that who are benefitted from the advantages of price and at what measurement has an importance in terms of that the exchange rate policies are able to show their expected effects on the balance of foreign trade.With moving from this point,the direction of causality between the exchange rate and rates of foreign trade is still continuing to be the subject of discussion in the literature.There are two alternative approach explaining this issue.The first of these is the approach of ”Standard Theory” putting forward that there is a causality relationship from the variations in the rates of foreign trade to the real exchange rate.According to the approach “Standard Theory”,as a result of an improvement occurring in the rates of foreign trade,via income transfer from foreign area to the domestic area,a rise can occur in the level of domestic price compared to that of foreign price,whereas the second approach is the approach of pass-through.According to the approach of pass- through,it is suggested that there is a cross directional relationship from the variations in exchange rates to the rates of foreign trade.
其他摘要：Türkiye’de reel döviz kuru ile dış ticaret arasındaki ilişkinin araştırıldığı bu çalışmada sırasıyla;“Durağanlık Testi (Birim Kök Analizi),VAR Modeli,Koentegrasyon (Eşbütünleşme) Analizi,Hata Düzeltme Modeli” metodları uygulanarak söz konusu iki olgu,2003: 1 – 2010: 12 dönemini kapsayan aylık verilerle ampirik olarak incelenmiştir.Elde edilen bulgulara göre reel döviz kurları ile dış ticaret hacmi arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir.Öte yandan,reel döviz kurlarından dış ticaret hacmine yönelik hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunurken,dış ticaret hacminden reel döviz kurlarına yönelik olarak yalnızca kısa dönemde bir nedensellik bulunduğu tespit edilmiştir.
